State-guaranteed loans: who is asking for them
The requests for financing, covered by a public guarantee, presented by Italian small and medium-sized enterprises and self-employed with VAT number are so far just under 330 thousand but the guaranteed loans could reach up to 2.5 million within a year on a total audience about 5 million potentially interested parties.
This is what Fabi (Autonomous Italian Banking Federation) estimates in an analysis reported today by the news agency Adnkronos, from which the numbers of applications submitted so far and the territorial distribution emerge, together with numerous considerations that show how many businesses are excluded from the concrete possibility of applying for these loans.
According to Fabi’s calculation, the phenomenon in fact affects a potential audience of 5 million companies and VAT numbers but not everyone can access it. A portion of about 5-600 thousand subjects (equal to 10%), so-called inactive and who, therefore, cannot present any demand for liquidity, must be subtracted.Then there is another half a million VAT numbers which is not in a position to obtain these forms of financing since it was in a state of difficulty or distress before the Covid-19 emergency or before January 31, 2020 and another 500 thousand VAT numbers have reported receipts of 15 thousand euros per year: since the ceiling of the loan that can be granted is 25% of the revenues for loans up to 25 thousand euros, this half million businesses would obtain credits of a very small amount, of a very few thousand euros : in these cases the whole procedure would be expensive and even inconvenient.
Of the remaining 3.5 million subjects, on the other hand, Fabi estimates that 1 million may not have “what it takes to submit an application” and therefore if it does so it would be excluded due to lack of requirements, or have sufficient cash in hand and, therefore , do not need additional credit.According to Fabi, therefore, the total applications for financing up to 25 thousand euros and up to 800 thousand euros – or those managed with the Central Guarantee Fund – will fluctuate between 2 and 2.5 million. Meanwhile, on the current situation front, Fabi has also crossed the data on the progress of the files received so far by the institutes, relating to loans accompanied by state coverage, with the indications collected on the territory and in the banking agencies. In total, 329,393 applications for a total of € 14.9 billion have so far been submitted (as of May 21): 295,780 applications for financing up to € 25,000 have been made for a total of € 6.1 billion (€ 20,861 the average amount ), while there are 33,613 requests for financing up to 800 thousand euros (260,301 euros the average amount).But from the elaboration it emerges that the loan operation runs the risk of penalizing the South, favoring only the northern areas of Italy considering that almost half (47.6%) of the requests presented so far is limited to just four regions: Lombardy, Piedmont, Veneto and Emilia-Romagna. So far 69,589 applications have been submitted in Lombardy (21.1% of the total), for a total of 3.3 billion (48,254 euros the average amount), followed by Emilia-Romagna with 33,449 applications (10.2%); the third region for the number of requests is Lazio with 30,424 files (9.2%). Thus, four regions made the lion’s share: Lombardy (21.1%), Emilia-Romagna (10.2%), Veneto (8.7%) and Piedmont (7.6%) have almost half of the operations. (47.6%).